Will Sensex hit 72,000 in 2022? Here’s what Dalal Street analysts predict

NEW DELHI: Despite strong gains in 2020, the market rewarded largecap investors handsomely in 2021 even as sharp foreign equity outflows in the last three months ate into the final tally. With concerns over rich valuations easing a bit, Street is fairly positive on 2022 returns, with some brokerages projecting a Sensex target as high as 72,000 and a corresponding Nifty target of 21,000. The bullish targets suggest 23-26 per cent potential upside for the market indices in Calendar 2022.

The average targets for the two key indices by 13 brokerages that participated in the year-end poll till the cut off date stand at 65,293 and 19,300 per cent, respectively.

“Although markets can potentially give 10-12 per cent returns in 2022, it would be unwise to expect that markets will run up as swiftly as 2020 and 2021. The easy phase of money-making is behind us and now the alpha will be generated by superior stock selection. Hence, a bottom up approach would be most ideal to play 2022,” said Yesha Shah, Head – Equity Research, Samco Securities.

The most bullish analyst in the survey was Amar Ambani, Senior President and Head – Institutional Equities at YES Securities, as he forecast Sensex at 72,000 and Nifty 21,000. The lowest targets were spelled out by Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services. He sees Sensex at 58,800 and Nifty at 17,500, respectively.

“Last quarter, we had a base target of 16,500 and 55,500 for Nifty50 & Sensex30, respectively, for Dec 2022, which we are improving to 17,500 & 58,800. We anticipate volatility during the initial 2-4 months in 2022,” Nair said.

Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, said Nifty and Sensex are trading Calendar 2022 P/E of 19.3 times and 20.7 times, respectively, which is 20% higher than their long term 1-year forwarded P/E valuation.

He said the US Fed is focusing on CPI inflation management and, therefore, the US Treasury yields are likely to go up, which could reduce FII holdings in India.

“As a result, we are expecting the markets to remain range-bound. FIIs will continue to book profits on higher levels, while DIIs will counter the trades at lower levels. Our target for Nifty50 is 18,500 and for Sensex is 60,000,” said he.

For Ajit Mishra, VP- Research at Religare Broking, Sensex could touch 64,000 by December 2022 and Nifty 19,500. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities sees Sensex at 63,800 and Nifty at 19,190. Jyoti Roy, DVP, Equity Strategist at Angel One, has higher targets – Sensex at 66,750 and 19,500 for Nifty.

Mitul Shah, Head of Research at Reliance Securities, expects an 8-10 per cent up move in Nifty in 2022 from the current level.

Mohit Nigam, Head – PMS, Hem Securities believes that any significant corrections in the market can be a very good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks across sectors.

“We are hoping for a positive budget, besides UP elections outcome can also affect the direction of the market. According to our analysis, the targets for Sensex and Nifty 50 are 67,000 and 20,000, respectively, by the end of 2022,” he said.

There were many analysts who only offered Nifty targets.

Roop Bhootra, CEO, Investment Services at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, has a Nifty50 target of 19,700 for the next 12 months. “We do not have any specific target for Sensex separately,” he clarified.

Neeraj Chadawar, Head – Quantitative Equity Research at Axis Securities, pegs Nifty50 target at 20,200 valuing it at 22 times on FY24 earnings.

Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at CapitalVia Global Research, noted that Nifty made a high of 18,604 in the month of October from the low of last year December 13,981, which was up 33 per cent in a span of 10 months.

“But with the spread of the new Covid-19 variant, the sentiments have changed in the market and are a bit cautious about both the primary and secondary market as well. The CY22 might be a roller coaster for the market due to uncertainty around Omicron, increase of interest rates and surge in inflation all around the world. If global and domestic cues are positive, we may see Nifty at 21,000 and Sensex at 70,000, respectively,” he said.

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