Ahead of Market: 12 things that will decide stock action on Thursday

NEW DELHI: As Nifty closed near its 20-day simple moving average on Wednesday, analysts said the larger trend for Nifty is looking sideways. Market’s direction from here on could be influenced by expiry-related factors, they said.

Here’s how analysts read the market pulse:

Rohit Singre, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said Nifty’s immediate supports are seen in the 15,600-15,500 range and below the 15,500 level. We may see good selling pressure,” he said.

Gaurav Ratnaparkhi of Sharekhan said the index is in consolidation mode and is seeing pressure on the higher side. “Nifty50 can fall towards the hourly lower Bollinger Band, which is near the 15,600 level,” he said.

That said, here’s a look at what some of the key indicators are suggesting for Thursday’s action:

Nasdaq @ record high as factory activity scales new peak

The Nasdaq hit an all-time high on Wednesday, helped by a boost from Tesla’s shares, with investors cheering data showing U.S. factory activity climbed to a record peak in June. Six of the 11 majors S&P sectors rose in early trading, with energy jumping more than 1.5 per cent on the back of higher oil prices.

At 10:14 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14.26 points, or 0.04 per cent, at 33,959.84, the S&P 500 was up 7.29 points, or 0.17 per cent, at 4,253.73, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 54.71 points, or 0.38 per cent, at 14,307.97.

Aftereffect of Fed’s move drag European shares down

The STOXX 600 was 0.44 per cent lower on the day but was up around 1.3 per cent from the lows it hit on Monday. European stocks struggled to gain momentum on Wednesday. The market is still feeling the after-effects of the Fed’s surprise projection for rate hikes as soon as 2023 last week, which knocked stocks, boosted the dollar and prompted the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten.

Tech View: Nifty forms Bearish Belt Hold candle

Nifty50 on Wednesday saw selling pressure from the word go, as it ended up forming a ‘Bearish Belt Hold’ pattern on the daily chart. Analysts are cautious. The index closed near its 20-day simple moving average and analysts said this level must be defended for the sentiment to stay positive.

Check out the candlestick formations in the latest trading sessions

F&O: Rising VIX giving market volatile cues

India VIX moved up 4.24 per cent from 14.73 to 15.36 level. Yet, lower volatility indicates an overall bullish market bias, but every small bounce in VIX can give the market volatile cues. On the options front, maximum Put OI was seen at 15,500 level followed by 15,600, while maximum Call OI was at 15,800 followed by 16,000 levels. There was Call writing at 15,800 and then 15,750 levels while Put writing was seen at 15,550 and 15,600.

Stocks showing bullish bias

Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trade setup on the counters of

, Infibeam Avenues, Tata Motors, Texmaco Rail & Engineering, Godrej Agrovet, ITI, HUDCO, Jain Irrigation, Aditya Birla Fashion, Liberty Shoes, Ramco Systems, Max Healthcare, Godrej Industries, Nesco, Dhani Services, ABB India, Worth Peripherals, Ramco Industries, Vinati Organics, SIL Investments, Xelpmoc Design, Vindhya Telelink, RPG Life Sciences, Mold-Tek Packaging, , V Mart Retail, Akzo Nobel India, Poddar Pigments and Wendt India.

The MACD is known for signalling trend reversals in traded securities or indices. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it gives a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may see an upward movement and vice versa.

Stocks signalling weakness ahead

The MACD showed bearish signs on the counters of Tata Power, Rail Vikas Nigam, Future Enterprises, Biocon, Ambuja Cements, Usha Martin, Jaypee Infratech,

, Aditya Birla Money, Varun Beverages, CESC, MphasiS, FDC, Orient Electric, Mahindra Logistics, L&T Technology Services, Essar Shipping, TGB Banquets, Torrent Pharmaceutical, Aban Offshore, PSP Projects, Bang Overseas, BASF India, Pioneer Distille, ,, Pearl Global Industries, Mangalam Timber and Kalyani Investment. Bearish crossover on the MACD on these counters indicated that they have just begun their downward journey.

Wednesday’s most active stocks in value terms

Adani Ports SEZ (Rs 2,275.38 crore), Venky’s (Rs 2,154.63 crore), BEL (Rs 1,983.46 crore), Adani Enterprises (Rs 1,918.71 crore), RIL (Rs 1,704.27 crore), Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,652.16 crore), Kotak Bank (Rs 1,322.88 crore), HFCL (Rs 1,278.61 crore), SBI (Rs 1,159.18 crore) and SBI Cards (Rs 937.25 crore) were among the most active stocks on Dalal Street in value terms. Higher activity on a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with highest trading turnovers in the day.

Wednesday’s most active stocks in volume terms

JP Power (Shares traded: 26.28 crore), Suzlon Energy (Shares traded: 21.35 crore), PNB (Shares traded: 20.58 crore), HFCL (Shares traded: 18.42 crore), Vodafone Idea (Shares traded: 14.90 crore), BEL (Shares traded: 12.13 crore), GMR Infra (Shares traded: 10.63 crore), Reliance Power (Shares traded: 10.12 crore), YES Bank (Shares traded: 7.85 crore) and South Indian Bank (Shares traded: 7.27 crore) were among the most traded stocks in the session.

Stocks showing buying interest

ABB India, Crisil, HCL Infosystems, BEL, Godrej Agrovet, Timken India, Infibeam Avenues and Relaxo Footwear witnessed strong buying interest from market participants as they scaled their fresh 52-week highs, signalling bullish sentiment.

Stocks seeing selling pressure

Vikas EcoTech RE witnessed strong selling pressure and hit a 52-week low, signalling bearish sentiment on the counter.

Sentiment meter

Overall, the market breadth remained in favour of the bears. As many as 161 stocks on the BSE500 index settled the day in the green, while 336 settled the day in the red.

Podcast: Sectors looking attractive in a volatile market
Market is hovering near all-time highs and witnessing volatility. Which sectors should investors look at right now? Will the market continue to consolidate for some time? Where are the bank stocks headed? What are the Nifty charts suggesting?

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