Dow Jones Today, Futures Slip Ahead Of Inflation Data; Apple iPhone 13 Event, China Covid Outbreak, Oil Rally

Stock futures turned lower, trading cautiously ahead of a key inflation gauge due out before the open. Energy stocks rallied as oil prices continued to rise. China-related stocks were under pressure as the country fights to contain a coronavirus outbreak in its southeastern province of Fujian. On the Dow Jones today, Apple rose ahead of what analysts expect will be a new product-launch event.


Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures reversed narrow early gains and slipped just below fair value, each after breaking five-day declines on Monday. Nasdaq futures also slipped lower, threatening to extend its losing streak to a fifth session.

Chip stocks buoyed the Nasdaq 100 with moderate gains. Utility Excelon (EXC) gained added 0.5% after an upgrade to buy from Mizuho. Moderna (MRNA) traded high on the index, up 0.7%, after reversing to a 6.6% loss on Monday.

China-based stocks were taking hard early hits, after rising coronavirus infections in the country sent markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai to sharp declines. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) booked the biggest early losses on the S&P 500, down about 4% each as investors responded to the Covid-related lockdown in China.

IT consultant DXC Technology (DXC) jumped 1.9% to lead the S&P 500, boosted by an upgrade to buy, from neutral, from Bank of America. Oil stocks and chemical makers packed the head of the S&P 500, with Albermarle (ALB), Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Schlumberger (SLB) leading.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gained 0.6% in premarket trade. The ETF, an IBD SwingTrader listing, rose 2.9% on Monday and is poised to break above its 50-day moving average.

Oracle (ORCL) traded 2.1% lower following its fiscal first-quarter report late Monday. Three analysts raised their price targets on the stock, though Goldman Sachs raised only to 66 — 25% below Monday’s close — and maintained a sell rating.

The Labor Department releases its August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Markets will be closely watching the inflation gauge, particularly following last week’s steep surprise from the Producer Price Index — which often acts as a precursor to the CPI report.

Dow Jones Today: The Apple Clan Awaits iPhone Intro

Chevron (CVX) and specialty chemicals maker Dow (DOW) led the Dow Jones today, riding the rally in oil prices.

Apple added 0.2%, after snapping a three-day decline on Monday and as investors awaited for iPhone 13 introduction. Apple is scheduled to launch its “California Streaming” confab at 10 a.m. Pacific time, with analysts expecting the introduction of the newest iPhone and Apple Watch Series 7 wearables.

The three-day pullback left Apple shares below their 21-day moving average, but still holding well above support at their 50-day line. The IBD Leaderboard stock remains in a buy range, above a 148 trendline buy point, through 155.40.

Vital Signs: Oil, Bond Yields, Bitcoin

West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.8% in early trade, trading just below $71 a  barrel. U.S. oil prices have been testing resistance around the $70 level since Sept. 2, making on Monday their biggest move above that level since early August. WTI is now up 15% from a late-August low.

OPEC on Monday cranked its oil demand forecast for 2022 900,000 barrels per day higher, putting its 2002 estimate now 4.2 million barrels per day above 2021 levels. At the same time, U.S. oil production already crumped by Gulf Coast shut-ins and flooding from Hurricane Ida is now bracing for another storm, as Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthens toward hurricane status.

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The 10-year Treasury yield continues to press against resistance at its 200-day moving average. The yield added 1 basis point to 1.34% early Tuesday, holding steady ahead of the Labor Department’s CPI report. A week ago, the 10-year yield jumped past recent 200-day resistance and cleared an Aug. 12 high. It traded as low as 1.12% in August, and hit a high for the year above 1.76% on May 30.

Bitcoin gained 3%, to trade above $46,000, according to CoinDesk. It moved as high as $46,843 and as low as $43,480, over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency touched a high above $63,500 on April 13.

Stocks To Watch: Crocs, Mercado Libre, HubSpot

Footwear maker Crocs (CROX) remains in a buy range after finding support at its 10-week moving average. The buy zone extends to around 145.86.

Argentina-based Mercado Libre (MELI) is settled atop its 21-day moving average, not quite 3% below an 1,899.43 entry in a 31-week cup-with-handle base. The IBD Leaderboard stock briefly topping that entry at the start of September.

HubSpot (HUBS) has dipped back below a three-weeks-tight entry at 679.29. Shares reversed on Monday to end just even with their 21-day exponential moving average. The cloud-based marketing software developer has climbed more than 16% from a June breakout. Its relative strength line is just off record highs.

Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones Today

After snapping its five-day losing streak on Monday, the Dow Jones today faces the underside of its 50-day moving average.  In July, May, March and January the index punched easily back up through the line of potential resistance. In June, its recovery of support required a bit more time and effort.

The S&P 500 is engaged in a similar test, but at its shorter-term 21-day moving average, after also ending a five-day decline on Monday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added a fourth down day to its pullback, finishing Monday neatly seated at its 21-day line.

Growth stocks took some heavy losses Monday, with the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) dropping 2.7%. That left the ETF 5% off its Sept. 7 high, back below a 50.06 buy point and testing support at its 21-day line. The iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) logged a fifth slip, ending 2% off its record high and also testing 21-day support.

The picture was very similar among small caps. The Russell 2000 added 0.6% Monday, appearing to find support at its 50-day moving average. It is down about 3% from a Sept. 2 high. The S&P Smallcap 600 is down 3.4% over that same period, rising 0.8% Monday to close just below its 50-day line of support.

Riding Out The Test

So, there is a lot of testing going on across various segments of the market. The stock market’s status remains in “Confirmed Uptrend.,” and a reaffirmation of support may only require a day or two. Or it could last much longer and become more complex. That makes it a good time to take up at least a moderately defensive stance. Keep a close eye on how stocks in your portfolio are behaving. Trim back where prudent.

Big dives Monday by IBD 50 highfliers Dynavax (DVAX) and Taskus (TASK) underscore the CAN SLIM logic of locking in at least some profit in highly extended stocks. In addition, investors should be sure to limit news buys to thoroughly vetted leaders passing valid buy points, and to move into those positions cautiously. Even better, build a watchlist of stocks in bases, to prepare for when the market retakes or rebounds from support.

Please follow Alan R. Elliott on Twitter @IBD_Aelliott


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